Jagran Prakashan Limited – Tender Offer

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SUMMARY
POTENTIAL BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENT
On October 21, 2013, Jagran Prakashan Limited (BSE:532705) announced that it intends to initiate an equity buyback on October 30, 2013. The Company’s Board of Directors will consider a share repurchase program under which, the company will buyback its own shares.

Share Price = INR 85.50

At the time of potential buyback announcement, the terms of buyback i.e. mode of buyback (tender offer vs. open market repurchase), buyback price and size of buyback are unknown.

TENDER OFFER ANNOUNCEMENT
On October 30, 2013, Jagran Prakashan Limited (BSE:532705) announced a tender offer to buyback 5.00 million shares at a buyback price of INR 95.00 per share. This represents a spread of 10.3% over the market price of INR 86.10 per share, as of the announcement date. The proposed buyback shares represents 1.51% of the total outstanding shares of 331.91 million. Given SEBI’s rule of preference to small shareholders who own less than INR 2 lakh worth of shares of the Company, approximately 0.75 million shares are reserved for small shareholders, which represents 15% of the proposed buyback.

Features – Tender Offer – Fixed Price
Share Price = INR 86.10
Buyback Price = INR 95.00
Spread = 10.3%
Buyback Size = 1.5% or 5.00 million shares

RECORD DATE ANNOUNCEMENT
The Company has fixed the record date of November 15, 2013 for the purpose of determining the entitlement and the names of equity shareholders who are eligible to participate in the buyback.

BUYBACK DATES ANNOUNCEMENT
The Company has announced the buyback open and close dates to participate in this tender offer. The buyback window for putting instructions opens on December 11, 2013 and closes on December 24, 2013.

RISK-REWARD ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS AS OF TENDER OFFER ANNOUNCEMENT DATE
Share Price = INR 86.10

Based on our research and analysis, the acceptance rate of this tender offer for small shareholders is expected to fall in the 85%-100% range. At the current price level, this represents an expected return between 8.8% and 10.3%. If the share price drops by 5%, the expected return would be between 8.0% and 10.3%. If the share price increases by 5%, the expected return would be between 9.5% and 10.3%. At 100% acceptance rate, the maximum return would be around 10.3%.
Based on the above risk-reward ratio analysis, Jagran Prakashan Limited tender offer appears to be an attractive low-risk arbitrage opportunity for small shareholders.

CONCLUSION = INVEST

ANALYSIS AS OF 3 DAYS PRIOR TO RECORD DATE
Share Price = INR 86.25

At the current price level and above mentioned acceptance rates, an expected return is between 8.6% and 10.1%. If the share price drops by 5%, the expected return would be between 7.9% and 10.1%. If the share price increases by 5%, the expected return would be between 9.4% and 10.1%. At 100% acceptance rate, the maximum return would be around 10.1%.
Based on the above risk-reward ratio analysis, Jagran Prakashan Limited tender offer continue to appear to be an attractive low-risk arbitrage opportunity for small shareholders.

CONCLUSION = STAY INVESTED

ANALYSIS AS OF BUYBACK OPEN DATE
Share Price = INR 82.85

At the current price level and above mentioned acceptance rates, an expected return is between 12.5% and 14.7%. If the share price drops by 5%, the expected return would be between 11.7% and 14.7%. If the share price increases by 5%, the expected return would be between 13.2% and 14.7%.
Based on the above risk-reward ratio analysis, Jagran Prakashan Limited tender offer continue to appear to be an attractive low-risk arbitrage opportunity for small shareholders.

CONCLUSION = PARTICIPATE

POST-BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENT & RESULT
On December 24, 2013, Jagran Prakashan Limited (BSE:532705) announced the final results of the buyback. A total of 0.75 million shares were tendered by small shareholders, out of which 0.75 million shares were accepted. Therefore, the actual acceptance rate for small shareholders turned out to be approximately 100%. The share price increased by 1.6% since the tender offer announcement, which includes 1.6% decrease between the tender offer announcement and record date, and 3.2% increase between the record date and closing date.

Share Price = INR 87.45

Given we decided to INVEST at the time of tender offer announcement, decided to STAY INVESTED at the time of record date and decided to PARTICIPATE at the time of buyback open date, the net realized return was 10.3% over a span of 55 days, which is equivalent to an annualized return of 92.1%.

RESULT = PROFIT
RETURN = 10.3%
DURATION = 55 days
ANNUALIZED IRR = 92.1%

REFERENCE LINKS/FILINGS

Tender Offer Announcement
Record Date Announcement
Buyback Dates Announcement
Post Buyback Announcement

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURE
The above post/article should not be considered as a stock recommendation or trading/investing advice in any way. The stock analysis is based on the information publicly available to author, however readers should check the original source of information. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion. At the time of writing this post author may have a financial interest or ownership in the discussed stock or initiate a position anytime in future.