Kaveri Seed Company Limited – Tender Offer

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SUMMARY
POTENTIAL BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENT
On May 14, 2018, Kaveri Seed Company Limited (BSE:532899) announced that it intends to initiate an equity buyback on May 24, 2018. The Company’s Board of Directors will consider a share repurchase program under which, the company will buyback its own shares.

Share Price = INR 503.50

At the time of potential buyback announcement, the terms of buyback i.e. mode of buyback (tender offer vs. open market repurchase), buyback price and size of buyback are unknown. However, we note that Kaveri Seed Company Limited purchased shares through tender offer route 1 time in the past, so likelihood of a tender offer is higher.

TENDER OFFER ANNOUNCEMENT
On May 24, 2018, Kaveri Seed Company Limited (BSE:532899) announced a tender offer to buyback 2.96 million shares at a buyback price of ₹ 675.00 per share. This represents a spread of 33.0% over the market price of ₹ 507.35 per share, as of the announcement date. The proposed buyback shares represents 4.48% of the total outstanding shares of 66.09 million. Given SEBI’s rule of preference to small shareholders who own less than ₹ 0.2 million worth of shares of the Company, approximately 0.44 million shares are reserved for small shareholders, which represents 15% of the proposed buyback.

Features – Tender Offer – Fixed Price
Share Price = INR 507.35
Buyback Price = INR 675.00
Spread = 33.0%
Buyback Size = 4.5% or 2.96 million shares

RECORD DATE ANNOUNCEMENT
The Company has fixed the record date of August 3, 2018 for the purpose of determining the entitlement and the names of equity shareholders who are eligible to participate in the buyback.

BUYBACK DATES ANNOUNCEMENT
The Company has announced the buyback open and close dates to participate in this tender offer. The buyback window for putting instructions opens on August 27, 2018 and closes on September 7, 2018.

RISK-REWARD ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS AS OF TENDER OFFER ANNOUNCEMENT DATE
Share Price = INR 507.35

Based on our research and analysis, the acceptance rate of this tender offer for small shareholders is expected to fall in the 60%-100% range. At the current price level, this represents an expected return between 19.8% and 33.0%. If the share price drops by 5%, the expected return would be between 17.8% and 33.0%. If the share price increases by 5%, the expected return would be between 21.8% and 33.0%. At 100% acceptance rate, the maximum return would be around 33.0%.
Based on the above risk-reward ratio analysis, Kaveri Seed Company Limited tender offer appears to be an attractive low-risk arbitrage opportunity for small shareholders.

CONCLUSION = INVEST

ANALYSIS AS OF 3 DAYS PRIOR TO RECORD DATE
Share Price = INR 610.50

At the current price level and above mentioned acceptance rates, an expected return is between 6.3% and 10.6%. If the share price drops by 5%, the expected return would be between 4.3% and 10.6%. If the share price increases by 5%, the expected return would be between 8.3% and 10.6%. At 100% acceptance rate, the maximum return would be around 10.6%.
Based on the above risk-reward ratio analysis, Kaveri Seed Company Limited tender offer continue to appear to be an attractive low-risk arbitrage opportunity for small shareholders.

CONCLUSION = STAY INVESTED

ANALYSIS AS OF BUYBACK OPEN DATE
Share Price = INR 639.70

At the current price level and above mentioned acceptance rates, an expected return is between 3.3% and 5.5%. If the share price drops by 5%, the expected return would be between 1.3% and 5.5%. If the share price increases by 5%, the expected return would be between 5.3% and 5.5%.
Based on the above risk-reward ratio analysis, Kaveri Seed Company Limited tender offer continue to appear to be an attractive low-risk arbitrage opportunity for small shareholders.

CONCLUSION = PARTICIPATE

POST-BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENT & RESULT
On September 7, 2018, Kaveri Seed Company Limited (BSE:532899) announced the final results of the buyback. A total of 0.71 million shares were tendered by small shareholders, out of which 0.44 million shares were accepted. Therefore, the actual acceptance rate for small shareholders turned out to be approximately 63%. The share price increased by 26.3% since the tender offer announcement, which includes 16.1% increase between the tender offer announcement and record date, and 10.3% increase between the record date and closing date.

Share Price = INR 640.90

Given we decided to INVEST at the time of tender offer announcement, decided to STAY INVESTED at the time of record date and decided to PARTICIPATE at the time of buyback open date, the net realized return was 30.5% over a span of 106 days, which is equivalent to an annualized return of 150.3%.

RESULT = PROFIT
RETURN = 30.5%
DURATION = 106 days
ANNUALIZED IRR = 150.3%

REFERENCE LINKS/FILINGS
Potential Buyback Announcement
Tender Offer Announcement
Record Date Announcement
Buyback Dates Announcement
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DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURE
The above post/article should not be considered as a stock recommendation or trading/investing advice in any way. The stock analysis is based on the information publicly available to author, however readers should check the original source of information. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion. At the time of writing this post author may have a financial interest or ownership in the discussed stock or initiate a position anytime in future.